Safer Spaces: The impact of a reduction in road fatalities on the life expectancy of South Africans
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP18/2020Publication date: October 2020
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Politics and Public Administration, University of Konstanz)
In this paper we determine the cost of fatalities resulting from road traffic injuries (RTIs) in South Africa. We express the costs in terms of reduced life expectancy and years of potential life lost (YPLL). Our main data source is the Injury Mortality Survey, a retrospective descriptive study carried out in 2009 in South Africa. Using the mortality rates by sex and age from the mortuary data we calculate actual life expectancy at birth. In our counterfactual analysis we assume a reduction of 15% reduction per year in road fatalities for a period of 10 years. A comparison of the estimated actual and counterfactual life expectancies suggests that the average gain in life expectancy at birth would be 0.58 years. Since the overwhelming majority of road traffic fatalities are male (75.7%), there is a considerable gender difference. Men would gain 0.85 years while women would gain 0.30 years in life expectancy, closing the gender gap in life expectancy by about 14%. We then discuss how a reduction in RTIs could be achieved. South Africa’s legislation already covers all important aspects of road safety (e.g. seat belt use, drink driving restrictions, speed limits, infrastructure improvements), however, enforcement is relatively weak and should be improved. There are a raft of measures that have been well researched in other countries, most interventions aim to modify the behaviour of road users and have been found to be cost effective. In addition to stricter enforcement, evidence from social science suggests that compliance could be increased through a change in social norms regarding road usage.
JEL Classification:I15, I18, J19, O55
Keywords:road traffic fatalities, road safety, life expectancy, South Africa
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 28 July 202512:00-13:00
Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
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Prof Willem Boshoff
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
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Topic: "Examining the teaching, assessment and research activities of the South African Economics Departments"
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13 Jun 2025 Another global flashpoint ignites as Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilitiesThe story for the week was initially relatively positive, with the overarching narrative being that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. However, overnight, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, military sites and killed senior commanders in dozens of strikes. While Israel has attacked Iran before, this is the first time nuclear facilities were...
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