Safer Spaces: The impact of a reduction in road fatalities on the life expectancy of South Africans

In this paper we determine the cost of fatalities resulting from road traffic injuries (RTIs) in South Africa. We express the costs in terms of reduced life expectancy and years of potential life lost (YPLL). Our main data source is the Injury Mortality Survey, a retrospective descriptive study carried out in 2009 in South Africa. Using the mortality rates by sex and age from the mortuary data we calculate actual life expectancy at birth. In our counterfactual analysis we assume a reduction of 15% reduction per year in road fatalities for a period of 10 years. A comparison of the estimated actual and counterfactual life expectancies suggests that the average gain in life expectancy at birth would be 0.58 years. Since the overwhelming majority of road traffic fatalities are male (75.7%), there is a considerable gender difference. Men would gain 0.85 years while women would gain 0.30 years in life expectancy, closing the gender gap in life expectancy by about 14%. We then discuss how a reduction in RTIs could be achieved. South Africa’s legislation already covers all important aspects of road safety (e.g. seat belt use, drink driving restrictions, speed limits, infrastructure improvements), however, enforcement is relatively weak and should be improved. There are a raft of measures that have been well researched in other countries, most interventions aim to modify the behaviour of road users and have been found to be cost effective. In addition to stricter enforcement, evidence from social science suggests that compliance could be increased through a change in social norms regarding road usage.

I15, I18, J19, O55

road traffic fatalities, road safety, life expectancy, South Africa