Long and short-distance internal migration motivations in post-apartheid Namibia: a gravity model approach
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP11/2020Publication date: June 2020
Author(s):
The paper estimates a gravity model to analyse migration in contemporary Namibia, with the specific aim of understanding differences in long and short-distance migration. The sample is restricted to migrants moving in 2010 and 2011, who are between the ages of 20 and 49 years. Given Namibia’s history of apartheid-era segregation, the sample is later restricted to African-language speaking migrants to determine whether the distances traveled to satisfy information and finance-constrained needs differ from that of the full population. A zero-inflated negative binomial model is applied to estimate the effects of constituency-level economic indicators, labour market conditions, agricultural activity, and built amenities on migration flows. Regression analysis shows that analyzing internal migration flows in Namibia without accounting for distance-related differences in migrant motivations may produce misleading results. Disaggregation of migration flows by distance reveals that for both the entire population and the restricted African-language speaking sample, constituency differences in amenity quality are significant predictors of intermediate-distance migration volumes. Per capita income differences in favour of the receiving constituency increase long-distance migration volumes. For all distances, previous migration in the sending constituency is a strong positive predictor of migration volumes.
JEL Classification:J61, R23
Keywords:internal migration, urbanisation, Namibia, gravity model
Download: PDF (2.6 MB)Login
(for staff & registered students)
Upcoming Seminars
Monday 13 October 202512:10-13:10
Prof Euan Phimister: Stellenbosch Business School
Topic: "TBA"
12:10-13:10
Dr Friedrich Kreuser: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Allocative Efficiency, Labour Shares, and Corporate Lobbying in European Manufacturing"
12:10-13:10
Prof Masashige Hamano: Waseda University
Topic: "TBA"
BER Weekly
26 Sep 2025 Free Weekly Review | Number 37 | 26 SeptemberThis report covers the key domestic and international data releases over the past week. The more comprehensive BER Weekly Review (Enhanced Version) includes a detailed discussion on the main economic events and developments over the past week, a summary of upcoming data (the week ahead) and the BER’s forecast for key economic indicators....
Read the full issue
Upcoming Seminars
Monday 13 October 202512:10-13:10
Prof Euan Phimister: Stellenbosch Business School
Topic: "TBA"
12:10-13:10
Dr Friedrich Kreuser: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Allocative Efficiency, Labour Shares, and Corporate Lobbying in European Manufacturing"
12:10-13:10
Prof Masashige Hamano: Waseda University
Topic: "TBA"
BER Weekly
26 Sep 2025 Free Weekly Review | Number 37 | 26 SeptemberThis report covers the key domestic and international data releases over the past week. The more comprehensive BER Weekly Review (Enhanced Version) includes a detailed discussion on the main economic events and developments over the past week, a summary of upcoming data (the week ahead) and the BER’s forecast for key economic indicators....
Read the full issue