Long and short-distance internal migration motivations in post-apartheid Namibia: a gravity model approach

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP11/2020
 
Publication date: June 2020
 
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)
 
Abstract:

The paper estimates a gravity model to analyse migration in contemporary Namibia, with the specific aim of understanding differences in long and short-distance migration. The sample is restricted to migrants moving in 2010 and 2011, who are between the ages of 20 and 49 years. Given Namibia’s history of apartheid-era segregation, the sample is later restricted to African-language speaking migrants to determine whether the distances traveled to satisfy information and finance-constrained needs differ from that of the full population. A zero-inflated negative binomial model is applied to estimate the effects of constituency-level economic indicators, labour market conditions, agricultural activity, and built amenities on migration flows. Regression analysis shows that analyzing internal migration flows in Namibia without accounting for distance-related differences in migrant motivations may produce misleading results. Disaggregation of migration flows by distance reveals that for both the entire population and the restricted African-language speaking sample, constituency differences in amenity quality are significant predictors of intermediate-distance migration volumes. Per capita income differences in favour of the receiving constituency increase long-distance migration volumes. For all distances, previous migration in the sending constituency is a strong positive predictor of migration volumes.

 
JEL Classification:

J61, R23

Keywords:

internal migration, urbanisation, Namibia, gravity model

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3 August 2020
The week started with news of the confirmation of the $4.3 billion (bn) loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) through its Rapid Financing Instrument. In the process of obtaining the loan, the government re-committed itself to the fiscal consolidation outlined in the supplementary budget presented in June, including to introduce zero-based...

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Upcoming Seminars

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BER Weekly

3 August 2020
The week started with news of the confirmation of the $4.3 billion (bn) loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) through its Rapid Financing Instrument. In the process of obtaining the loan, the government re-committed itself to the fiscal consolidation outlined in the supplementary budget presented in June, including to introduce zero-based...

Read the full issue