Media based sentiment indices as an alternative measure of consumer confidence
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP17/2018Publication date: September 2018
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department Economics, Stellenbosch University)
The world is currently generating data at an uprecedented rate. Embracing the data revolution, case studies on the construction of alternative consumer confidence indices using large text datasets have started to make its way into the academic literature. These 'sentiment indices' are constructed using text-based analysis. A subfield within computational linguistics. In this paper we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices using large amounts of media data as an alternative for the conventional survey method in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of feasible cadidate sentiment indices that best reflect the traditional survey based confidence consumer index conducted by the BER. The results indicate that the best candidate indices are linked to a single data source with a focus on using specialised financial dictionaries. Finally, composite indices for consumer confidence is constructed using Principle Component Analysis. The resulting indices' high correlation with the traditional consumer confidence index provide motivation for using media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa using sentiment based techniques
JEL Classification:B41, C52, C55, C83
Keywords:Big Data, Sentiment Analysis, Consumer Confidence
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 28 July 202512:00-13:00
Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Willem Boshoff: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
12:00-13:00
Professor Johan Fourie: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Economic History: TBC"
BER Weekly
18 Jul 2025 Encouraging data, but messy politics while US tariff deadline loomsThe big global data prints of the week came on Tuesday, with better-than-expected Chinese GDP growth for Q2 and US core CPI coming in lower than expected, but still (finally) reflecting some signs of tariffs being passed on to consumers. Locally, the uptick in mining production and retail sales was positive for Q2 GDP dynamics. In addition to the data,...
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