Understanding the sharp primary level enrolment increases beginning in 2011

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP08/2018
 
Publication date: May 2018
 
Author(s):
[protected email address] (ReSEP, Stellenbosch University, and Department of Basic Education)
 
Abstract:

Enrolments at the primary level in South Africa increased sharply from around 2011. Over the six-year period 2009 to 2015, grade 1 enrolments increased by 13%. These increases were not expected, and came after many years of enrolment decline. The current paper concludes that the enrolment increases were due to population increases. They were not caused by fraudulent over-reporting or increases in grade repetition. They were clearly the outcome of a remarkable increase of around 13% in births, in particular during the years 2003 to 2005. This is confirmed by birth registrations data. After 2008, births declined somewhat and settled at a level which was around 6% lower than the 2005 to 2008 ‘plateau’. However, this decline was not large enough to take birth numbers back to their pre-2003 levels. A brief discussion of the aggregate statistics relating to the child support grant and anti-retroviral treatment, and of some available research on causation, leads to the conclusion that it is not easy to explain the increase in births, though the available evidence leans towards anti-retroviral treatment, rather than child support grants, as the most likely explanation. Further analysis of microdata may bring more certainty in future. The paper argues that better use could be made of the available data, all of which have problems, but which, when analysed together, can produce more reliable scenarios around future enrolments. Such scenarios are obviously vital for effective education planning.

 
JEL Classification:

I21, J11, O15

Keywords:

Education demographics, South Africa, births

Download: PDF (522 KB)

Login

(for staff & registered students)



Need a password?
Forgot your password?

BER Weekly

16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoning
This week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...

Read the full issue
 

BER Weekly

16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoning
This week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...

Read the full issue