The business cycle resilience of the Western Cape economy: a regional analysis of the 2009 recession and subsequent recovery
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP17/2016Publication date: 2016
Author(s):
Business cycle research revived in the run-up to and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. This paper focuses on the concept of regional economic resilience as an applied field of business cycle research. The resilience of the Western Cape regional economy is analysed by assessing the impact of the 2009 recession. Being one of the leading provincial economies of South Africa, the question is asked to what extent the 2009 recession impacted the Western Cape’s longer term economic growth path. The latest research techniques in assessing economic resilience are applied, albeit that the analysis is narrowed down to quantifying the region’s resistance to and recoverability from the 2009 recession. While the national and provincial contexts receive attention, the focus is on the district economies of the Western Cape. The drivers of economic resilience are decomposed into two key forces, namely industry mix and regional competitiveness, using a shift-share analysis. Longer term structural change is also considered. The paper finds that the Eden and Overberg district economies’ growth paths, and the way in which these regions absorbed the recession impact, may provide policy makers with pointers as how to revive the Western Cape’s growth path, which took a knock with the 2009 recession.
JEL Classification:E32, R12
Keywords:Business cycles, Size and spatial distributions of regional economic activity
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 21 July 202512:00-13:00
Izak Odendaal: Old Mutual Wealth Chief Investment Strategist
Topic: "Diverging fiscal policies and what it means for markets"
12:00-13:00
Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
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Prof Willem Boshoff: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
BER Weekly
27 Jun 2025 Another setback for the GNU, but oil markets breathe a little easierThis week was marked by heightened tensions both domestically and internationally. At home, friction intensified between the two largest parties in the Government of National Unity (GNU), the ANC and the DA, following the firing of one of the DA's deputy ministers. Internationally, the US conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities using...
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