Enhancing the financial sector linkages in the Bureau for Economic Research’s core macroeconometric model

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP21/2015
 
Publication date: 2015
 
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellenbosch)
 
Abstract:

The recent Great Financial Crisis (GFC) highlighted the importance of the development of financial sector linkages in macroeconomic models. The aim of this paper is to present the enhanced linkages from the financial sector to real economic activity in the Bureau for Economic Research’s (BER) core traditional semi-structural quarterly macroeconometric model. While many central banks have developed DSGE-type models, many national treasuries and other institutions use models similar to the BER’s core model. There is a large body of available literature on incorporating the financial sector into DSGE-type models, but this literature is rather limited for more traditional forecasting models. An additional objective was to add to this body of literature in documenting the changes to the BER’s model. Apart from incorporating the BER’s finance-neutral measure of potential output (see Kemp, 2015), credit markets and assets prices are now model determined. Also, banking sector variables such as the capital adequacy and liquidity ratios as well as the EY Financial Services (as surveyed by the BER) indicators on the credit standards of retail banks influence lending rate spreads faced by households and firms. The aim was to broaden the monetary transmission mechanism in the model so that the financial sector has an explicit impact on real variables in addition to the usual interest rate and exchange rate channels. This is illustrated by comparing the results of a similar sized interest rate shock before and after the model enhancements.

 
JEL Classification:

E10, E17, E20, E27, E44

Keywords:

Macroeconometric model, banking sector, capital adequacy ratio, liquidity ratio, credit standards

Download: PDF (318 KB)

Login

(for staff & registered students)



Need a password?
Forgot your password?

Upcoming Seminars

No seminars are currently listed. Please check back soon.
 
More...

BER Weekly

22 February 2021
As is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the inflation release, the domestic data releases continued to show that there was still some recovery momentum...

Read the full issue
 

Upcoming Seminars

No seminars are currently listed. Please check back soon.
 
More...

BER Weekly

22 February 2021
As is often the case, domestic financial markets largely ignored local developments, including a lower-than-expected January consumer inflation print, last week and were swept along by the intensification of the global reflation trade. Outside of the inflation release, the domestic data releases continued to show that there was still some recovery momentum...

Read the full issue