Inflation Forecasts and Forecaster Herding: Evidence from South African Survey Data
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP21/2014Publication date: 2014
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
We use South African survey data to study whether short-term inflation forecasts are unbiased. Depending on how we model a forecaster’s information set, we find that forecasts are biased due to forecaster herding. Evidence of forecaster herding is strong when we assume that the information set contains no information on the contemporaneous forecasts of others. When we randomly allocate forecasters into a group of early forecasters who can only observe the past forecasts of others and late forecasters who can observe the contemporaneous forecasters of their predecessors, then evidence of forecaster herding weakens. Further, evidence of forecaster herding is strong and significant in times of high inflation volatility. In time of low inflation volatility, in contrast, forecaster anti-herding seems to dominate
JEL Classification:C53, D82, E37
Keywords:inflation rate, forecasting, forecaster herding
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26 Jul 2024Following a string of busy weeks, it was relatively quiet on the local front. Datawise, the most notable release was the consumer price inflation (CPI) print for June. The biggest global data release of the week also came from the US, with GDP coming out much stronger than expected in Q2. It was a(nother) wild week in US politics, with President Joe...
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BER Weekly
26 Jul 2024Following a string of busy weeks, it was relatively quiet on the local front. Datawise, the most notable release was the consumer price inflation (CPI) print for June. The biggest global data release of the week also came from the US, with GDP coming out much stronger than expected in Q2. It was a(nother) wild week in US politics, with President Joe...
Read the full issue