The Welfare Cost of Sovereign Default and Liquidity Injections

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP12/2014
 
Publication date: 2014
 
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
 
Abstract:

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous default on entrepreneur loans and funds borrowed from the central bank (liquidity injections) and investigates the welfare cost of sovereign default. The results show that sovereign default affects production through households' investment decisions and the bank's asset portfolio adjustment. The effect of sovereign default on entrepreneurs tends to be in favor of production. Sovereign default reduces the variability of the output gap and hence the welfare loss. Liquidity injections reduce the variability of the output gap and improve price stability during the period of sovereign debt crisis, resulting in an increase in households' welfare.

 
JEL Classification:

E50, E58, E63, G18

Keywords:

sovereign default, welfare cost, debt crisis, rollover risk, liquidity

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1 March 2021
Even with the release of data showing a record high unemployment rate in 2020Q4, it turned out to be a fairly good week for the SA economy. Daily new COVID-19 infections remained well contained, while the second batch of 80 000 J&J vaccines arrived (albeit controversially with the grounded SAA being the carrier). In addition, relative to the October...

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