Fiscal sustainability in South Africa: Will history repeat itself?
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP07/2013Publication date: 2013
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
Several empirical studies have found that fiscal policy has been sustainable in South Africa since 1960. This paper complements these studies by providing perspective on the manner in which fiscal sustainability was maintained. It discusses two episodes of significant increases and one period of substantial reduction in the public debt burden to show that periods of rising deficits and government debt in South Africa were followed by returns to sustainable levels, thereby preventing major domestic economic crises and external interventions. The paper also provides a projection of the fiscal outlook for South Africa based on a structural VAR model. The results suggest that the discretionary fiscal decisions of 2007 to 2010 might pose a serious threat to the sustainability of fiscal policy unless the authorities respond as they did in the past by checking large budget deficits and concomitant rapid increases in the public debt burden promptly.
JEL Classification:H62, H63
Keywords:fiscal policy, fiscal sustainability, South Africa
Download: PDF (366 KB)Login
(for staff & registered students)
Upcoming Seminars
Monday 28 July 202512:00-13:00
Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Willem Boshoff
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
12:00-13:00
Prof Derek Yu: University Of The Western Cape
Topic: "Examining the teaching, assessment and research activities of the South African Economics Departments"
BER Weekly
6 Jun 2025 SA GDP barely expands in Q1, while BCI and PMI suggest that Q2 remained weakIt was a busy week for local data releases, much of which painted a bleak picture of SA’s economy. Not only was first-quarter GDP growth dismal, but 2024 growth was also revised lower to just 0.5%. , The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) showed sentiment remained shaky in the second quarter...
Read the full issue
Upcoming Seminars
Monday 28 July 202512:00-13:00
Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Willem Boshoff
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
12:00-13:00
Prof Derek Yu: University Of The Western Cape
Topic: "Examining the teaching, assessment and research activities of the South African Economics Departments"
BER Weekly
6 Jun 2025 SA GDP barely expands in Q1, while BCI and PMI suggest that Q2 remained weakIt was a busy week for local data releases, much of which painted a bleak picture of SA’s economy. Not only was first-quarter GDP growth dismal, but 2024 growth was also revised lower to just 0.5%. , The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) showed sentiment remained shaky in the second quarter...
Read the full issue