The gap between school enrolments and population in South Africa: Analysis of the possible explanations
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP23/2012Publication date: 2012
Author(s):
In South Africa, like in many developing countries, the differences between enrolment totals, estimated by the education authorities, and the numbers of children in the country, estimated by demographers in the national statistical agency, defy easy explanations and suggest that one or both sets of statistics are inaccurate. In South Africa the gap between the two sets of estimates is substantially larger than one would expect. The typical reasons that have been found to underlie developing country data problems of this kind are discussed and their applicability to the South African data is investigated, using a variety of data sources. It is found that not clarifying the reasons behind the data discrepancies and not making necessary adjustments lead to distortions in commonly cited international development indicators that are not insignificant. It is demonstrated that analysing the various possible reasons for unexplained gaps between enrolment and population aggregates can reveal patterns that are in general useful for education planning. For instance, comparing the educational attainment of adults to enrolment patterns for children in the household data can help to gauge the extent to which the child enrolment responses are subject to typical upward biases. The analysis as a whole highlights the importance of collaboration between the education authorities and national statistical agencies to improve data collection and imputation techniques on both sides.
JEL Classification:D19, I21
Keywords:population estimates, school enrolment, enrolment ratios, household surveys, gross enrolment ratio
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 21 July 202512:00-13:00
Izak Odendaal: Old Mutual Wealth Chief Investment Strategist
Topic: "Diverging fiscal policies and what it means for markets"
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Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
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Prof Willem Boshoff: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
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4 Jul 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act passes as tariff pause deadline loomsThis week brought a flurry of data releases alongside a heavy dose of political drama, both locally and globally. Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report was the standout global data release. Domestically, tensions persisted in the DA-ANC relationship. On the international stage, headlines were dominated by the passage of the One Big Beautiful...
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