The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP03/2012 (revised, version: 2)
 
Publication date: 2012
 
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
 
Abstract:

Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently the total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition can be valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries. This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to construct a retrospective panel to investigate reasons for the decline in fertility in South Africa since the 1960s. The analysis attributes a large share of the observed fertility decline across birth cohorts to improving education levels and the lower prevalence of marriage. However, a considerable segment of the transition is ascribed to the unobservables. This may include HIV/AIDS, the increased use of contraceptives and changes in intra-household relationships and the social role of women.

 
JEL Classification:

J13, J12

Keywords:

South Africa, fertility, education, marriage, social norms

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BER Weekly

30 March 2020
Late Friday night, Moody's downgraded SA's foreign and local currency sovereign credit rating to Ba1 - one notch below investment grade - following a scheduled ratings review. Tragically, SA also recorded its first COVID-19 deaths and cases surged to over 1 200 during the week.In financial markets, the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) announced it would start...

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