The when and how of leaving school: The policy implications of new evidence on secondary schooling in South Africa
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP09/2011Publication date: 2011
Author(s):
South African and international household and education datasets are analysed to characterise patterns of dropping out, grade repetition, academic under-performance and under-preparedness for post-school life in South African secondary schools. A number of measurement error problems are moreover discussed and in some cases remedied. The proportion of South African youths entering upper secondary schooling is above the trend found in comparable middle income countries, the proportion entering the last grade (Grade 12) is about average, but the proportion successfully completing secondary schooling (40%) is below average. The data suggest improving quality should be a greater planning priority than increasing enrolments. A what-if subject choice analysis using examination data moreover suggests that successful completion could be greatly enhanced by guiding students to more appropriate subject choices, possibly through a more standardised set of assessments in Grade 9. Any attempt to reduce dropping out must pay close attention to financial constraints experienced by students with respect to relatively low-cost inputs such as books. Teenage pregnancies must be reduced as these explain half of female dropping out. The quality problem in schools underlined by the fact that income returns and test score gains associated with each additional year of secondary schooling are well below those associated with a year of post-school education.
JEL Classification:E24, I28, J31
Keywords:Human capital, Unemployment, Earnings function, South Africa, Secondary schools, Examinations, Education policy
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 28 July 202512:00-13:00
Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Willem Boshoff
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
12:00-13:00
Prof Derek Yu: University Of The Western Cape
Topic: "Examining the teaching, assessment and research activities of the South African Economics Departments"
BER Weekly
13 Jun 2025 Another global flashpoint ignites as Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilitiesThe story for the week was initially relatively positive, with the overarching narrative being that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. However, overnight, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, military sites and killed senior commanders in dozens of strikes. While Israel has attacked Iran before, this is the first time nuclear facilities were...
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