The when and how of leaving school: The policy implications of new evidence on secondary schooling in South Africa
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP09/2011Publication date: 2011
Author(s):
South African and international household and education datasets are analysed to characterise patterns of dropping out, grade repetition, academic under-performance and under-preparedness for post-school life in South African secondary schools. A number of measurement error problems are moreover discussed and in some cases remedied. The proportion of South African youths entering upper secondary schooling is above the trend found in comparable middle income countries, the proportion entering the last grade (Grade 12) is about average, but the proportion successfully completing secondary schooling (40%) is below average. The data suggest improving quality should be a greater planning priority than increasing enrolments. A what-if subject choice analysis using examination data moreover suggests that successful completion could be greatly enhanced by guiding students to more appropriate subject choices, possibly through a more standardised set of assessments in Grade 9. Any attempt to reduce dropping out must pay close attention to financial constraints experienced by students with respect to relatively low-cost inputs such as books. Teenage pregnancies must be reduced as these explain half of female dropping out. The quality problem in schools underlined by the fact that income returns and test score gains associated with each additional year of secondary schooling are well below those associated with a year of post-school education.
JEL Classification:E24, I28, J31
Keywords:Human capital, Unemployment, Earnings function, South Africa, Secondary schools, Examinations, Education policy
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16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoningThis week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 26 May 202512:00-13:00
Prof Simon Franklin: Queen Mary University In London
Topic: "No Place Like Home? The Causal Effect of Housing Clearances in Central Addis Ababa"
12:00-13:00
Dr Dawie van Lill: South African Reserve Bank & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Hylton Hollander: University Of Cape Town
Topic: "TBC"
BER Weekly
16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoningThis week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...
Read the full issue