The Bureau for Economic Research's inflation expectations surveys: Know your data
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP10/2021Publication date: December 2021
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Wilfrid Laurier University, Balsillie School of International Affairs, Waterloo, Canada, and Research Fellow, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa)
Inflation expectations are today keenly monitored by both the private sector and policy makers. Expectations matter, but whose expectations matter and how should this unobservable be measured? Answering these questions involves a number of choices that should be transparent and explicit. In this research note, we focus on these choices with respect to the South African inflation expectations data collected by the Bureau for Economic Research. Being willing to detail the strengths and weaknesses of a particular approach is valuable as it will enable us to choose the appropriate proxy for each application and to interpret the results with insight.
JEL Classification:C83, E43, E52, E58, E71
Keywords:Inflation expectations survey, Bureau for Economic Research, inflation targeting, monetary policy, survey methodology
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16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoningThis week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 26 May 202512:00-13:00
Prof Simon Franklin: Queen Mary University In London
Topic: "No Place Like Home? The Causal Effect of Housing Clearances in Central Addis Ababa"
12:00-13:00
Dr Dawie van Lill: South African Reserve Bank & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Hylton Hollander: University Of Cape Town
Topic: "TBC"
BER Weekly
16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoningThis week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...
Read the full issue