On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP24/2014
 
Publication date: 2014
 
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
 
Abstract:

We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.

 
JEL Classification:

C53, D82, E37

Keywords:

inflation rate, forecasting, directional accuracy

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BER Weekly

16 September 2019
Despite weak incoming SA data for 2019Q3, the rand exchange rate and JSE benefitted from a global investor rotation in favour of riskier asset classes (see the markets section) last week. This was aided by the European Central Bank (ECB) announcing a widely expected stimulus package (for more, click here) and the US slightly delaying the imposition...

Read the full issue