Research
On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP24/2014Publication date: 2014
Author(s):
[protected email address]
(Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
Abstract:[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.
JEL Classification:C53, D82, E37
Keywords:inflation rate, forecasting, directional accuracy
Download: PDF (881 KB)Login
(for staff & registered students)
BER Weekly
26 Apr 2024The most anticipated data release of the week was yesterday's US GDP print, which created more turmoil than usual by not meeting expectations. Growth was much weaker than expected in Q1, while price pressure remained red hot. Meanwhile, the local data calendar was quiet, with a slight acceleration in factory gate inflation and a welcome uptick in the...
Read the full issue
BER Weekly
26 Apr 2024The most anticipated data release of the week was yesterday's US GDP print, which created more turmoil than usual by not meeting expectations. Growth was much weaker than expected in Q1, while price pressure remained red hot. Meanwhile, the local data calendar was quiet, with a slight acceleration in factory gate inflation and a welcome uptick in the...
Read the full issue