Research
On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP24/2014Publication date: 2014
Author(s):
[protected email address]
(Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
Abstract:[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.
JEL Classification:C53, D82, E37
Keywords:inflation rate, forecasting, directional accuracy
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 28 July 202512:00-13:00
Dr Neil Rankin: Ceo Of Predictive Insights & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Willem Boshoff
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
12:00-13:00
Prof Derek Yu: University Of The Western Cape
Topic: "Examining the teaching, assessment and research activities of the South African Economics Departments"
BER Weekly
6 Jun 2025 SA GDP barely expands in Q1, while BCI and PMI suggest that Q2 remained weakIt was a busy week for local data releases, much of which painted a bleak picture of SA’s economy. Not only was first-quarter GDP growth dismal, but 2024 growth was also revised lower to just 0.5%. , The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI) showed sentiment remained shaky in the second quarter...
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