On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data

We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.

C53, D82, E37

inflation rate, forecasting, directional accuracy