On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data

Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP24/2014
 
Publication date: 2014
 
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
 
Abstract:

We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.

 
JEL Classification:

C53, D82, E37

Keywords:

inflation rate, forecasting, directional accuracy

Download: PDF (881 KB)

Login

(for staff & registered students)



Need a password?
Forgot your password?

BER Weekly

18 Jul 2025 Encouraging data, but messy politics while US tariff deadline looms
The big global data prints of the week came on Tuesday, with better-than-expected Chinese GDP growth for Q2 and US core CPI coming in lower than expected, but still (finally) reflecting some signs of tariffs being passed on to consumers. Locally, the uptick in mining production and retail sales was positive for Q2 GDP dynamics. In addition to the data,...

Read the full issue
 

BER Weekly

18 Jul 2025 Encouraging data, but messy politics while US tariff deadline looms
The big global data prints of the week came on Tuesday, with better-than-expected Chinese GDP growth for Q2 and US core CPI coming in lower than expected, but still (finally) reflecting some signs of tariffs being passed on to consumers. Locally, the uptick in mining production and retail sales was positive for Q2 GDP dynamics. In addition to the data,...

Read the full issue