Research
On the Directional Accuracy of Inflation Forecasts: Evidence from South African Survey Data
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP24/2014Publication date: 2014
Author(s):
[protected email address]
(Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
Abstract:[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
[protected email address] (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)
We study the directional accuracy of South African survey data of short-term and longer-term inflation forecasts. Upon applying techniques developed for the study of relative operating characteristic (ROC) curves, we find evidence that forecasts contain information with respect to the subsequent direction of change of the inflation rate.
JEL Classification:C53, D82, E37
Keywords:inflation rate, forecasting, directional accuracy
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26 Jul 2024Following a string of busy weeks, it was relatively quiet on the local front. Datawise, the most notable release was the consumer price inflation (CPI) print for June. The biggest global data release of the week also came from the US, with GDP coming out much stronger than expected in Q2. It was a(nother) wild week in US politics, with President Joe...
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BER Weekly
26 Jul 2024Following a string of busy weeks, it was relatively quiet on the local front. Datawise, the most notable release was the consumer price inflation (CPI) print for June. The biggest global data release of the week also came from the US, with GDP coming out much stronger than expected in Q2. It was a(nother) wild week in US politics, with President Joe...
Read the full issue