Rising unemployment amongst South Africa’s new generation
Stellenbosch Policy Brief No. 04/2010Publication date: 2010
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Stellenbosch University)
The policy brief studies unemployment between 1995 and 2007. The analysis is unique because it uses a pooled version of the labour market surveys available that enables the researcher to separate three influences that are often confused, namely time trends, cohort effects and the impact of age. The research dispels the myth of jobless growth in the early part of the 00's and shows that this myth may have emerged due to a confusion of the influences of time trends, cohort effects and the impact of age. The analysis demonstrates that there is a strong association between unemployment and the business cycle. Additionally, it indicates that the youth unemployment problem may not be a failure of the labour market, but a failure of the education system. The push to eliminate overage learners in schools has contributed largely to the surge in unemployment for the youngest generations. Overage learners are no longer in school, but have evidently not shifted to adult education alternatives. Instead, they have entered the labour market, but without the necessary skills to be absorbed. This policy has therefore brought about a sudden and dramatic change in the labour market experience of the youngest individuals by speeding up the school to labour market transition.
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 04 August 202512:00-13:00
Prof Willem Boshoff: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Two competing approaches in South African competition policy: merger control and anti-cartel enforcement over the past 30 years"
12:00-13:00
Professor Johan Fourie: Stellenbosch University
Topic: "Economic History: TBC"
12:00-13:00
Dr Stephen Taylor: Director In Education & Research Fellow Stellenbosch
Topic: "TBC"
BER Weekly
25 Jul 2025 Budget hurdle cleared, but US tariff implementation remains a riskIt was another big week on the local political front, but with some constructive momentum. On the trade front, ahead of next week’s 1 August deadline, Trump announced another “massive” trade deal with Japan. The upcoming week is busy, with a slew of global and domestic data releases and several monetary policy decisions, including the SARB....
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