Rising unemployment amongst South Africa’s new generation
Stellenbosch Policy Brief No. 04/2010Publication date: 2010
Author(s):
[protected email address] (Stellenbosch University)
The policy brief studies unemployment between 1995 and 2007. The analysis is unique because it uses a pooled version of the labour market surveys available that enables the researcher to separate three influences that are often confused, namely time trends, cohort effects and the impact of age. The research dispels the myth of jobless growth in the early part of the 00's and shows that this myth may have emerged due to a confusion of the influences of time trends, cohort effects and the impact of age. The analysis demonstrates that there is a strong association between unemployment and the business cycle. Additionally, it indicates that the youth unemployment problem may not be a failure of the labour market, but a failure of the education system. The push to eliminate overage learners in schools has contributed largely to the surge in unemployment for the youngest generations. Overage learners are no longer in school, but have evidently not shifted to adult education alternatives. Instead, they have entered the labour market, but without the necessary skills to be absorbed. This policy has therefore brought about a sudden and dramatic change in the labour market experience of the youngest individuals by speeding up the school to labour market transition.
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BER Weekly
16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoningThis week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...
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Upcoming Seminars
Monday 26 May 202512:00-13:00
Prof Simon Franklin: Queen Mary University In London
Topic: "No Place Like Home? The Causal Effect of Housing Clearances in Central Addis Ababa"
12:00-13:00
Dr Dawie van Lill: South African Reserve Bank & Stellenbosch University
Topic: "TBC"
12:00-13:00
Prof Hylton Hollander: University Of Cape Town
Topic: "TBC"
BER Weekly
16 May 2025 Trade truce lifts markets, SA braces for winter load-shedding and budget reckoningThis week, data showed that South Africa’s unemployment rate rose in 2025Q1, with net job losses compared to 2024Q4. Meanwhile, mining output improved in March but declined overall for the quarter. In the US, inflation eased to a four-year low, while Germany’s economic sentiment rebounded sharply. The UK economy posted impressive growth in Q1; however,...
Read the full issue