Fiscal uncertainty with donor herding and domestic debt crisis
Stellenbosch Working Paper Series No. WP07/2006Publication date: 2006
Author(s):
This study attempts to analyse how uncertainty about future government spending affects the representative individual’s lifetime utility by using a discrete inter-temporal optimizing model. Intuitively, the study shows that the overall effect of a highly positive domestic-debt repayment gap is such that the expected government spending for the next period will go down. The implication of the reduction in government spending due to uncertainty about future debt servicing is that the output and the corresponding investment for the next period will be expected to go down. This outcome is further reinforced by the higher taxes imposed on consumers in an attempt to minimise the next period’s domestic-debt repayment gap.
JEL Classification:E6, F3
Keywords:Donor herding behavior, domestic debt crisis, fiscal uncertainty, domestic-debt, repayment gap, government spending
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19 Apr 2024There was good news for global growth this week – with China's Q1 GDP beating expectations (see international section) and the IMF lifting its global growth forecast for 2024 once more. SA economic data releases, however, were mixed, with a welcome downtick in CPI inflation but relatively poor internal trade data. Most of the world’s economic policymakers...
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BER Weekly
19 Apr 2024There was good news for global growth this week – with China's Q1 GDP beating expectations (see international section) and the IMF lifting its global growth forecast for 2024 once more. SA economic data releases, however, were mixed, with a welcome downtick in CPI inflation but relatively poor internal trade data. Most of the world’s economic policymakers...
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